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N.F.L. Week 11 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Browns -10 | Total: 45

Baker Mayfield has had an up-and-down campaign for a contract extension and is trending downward. The Browns (5-5) are last in the A.F.C. North, and he completed only 52 percent of his passes for 73 yards last week in a blowout loss against the Patriots that Mayfield left in the second half because of a knee injury.

Mayfield’s status is day-to-day as he nurses that injury and an ailing shoulder, but Coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Mayfield to play against the Lions (0-8-1), who recently played the season’s first tie. Detroit took Pittsburgh to overtime last week and looked gassed trying to finally get a win. If Mayfield is even somewhat effective, and if running back Nick Chubb clears Covid-19 protocols, Cleveland should cover at home. Pick: Browns -10

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBS

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Line: Titans -10.5 | Total: 44.5

The Titans (8-2) have won both their games without their star running back Derrick Henry, but they’re still without Julio Jones (hamstring), who must miss at least two more games while on injured reserve. Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and the Titans’ cast of replacement backs should face little resistance from the Texans (1-8), who are rested from a bye week but whose defense has given up the second-most rushing yards (1,232) in the league. Pick: Titans -10.5

Miami Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Dolphins -3 | Total: 45.5

The Dolphins (3-7) returned their 2020 methodology of aggressively blitzing to beat Lamar Jackson last week, and it can definitely give Joe Flacco problems. Mike White threw four interceptions against the Bills, clearing up any quarterback controversy for the Jets (2-7). With Zach Wilson still recovering from a knee injury, Coach Robert Saleh elected to start Flacco, a 14-season veteran, over White. Pick: Dolphins -3

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., Fox

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Line: Eagles -1.5 | Total: 45

After ignoring the run earlier in the season, the Eagles (4-6) have rushed for over 130 yards in each of their last four games, including two performances over 200 yards. That strategy may not work against the Saints (5-4), whose defense has given up more than 100 rushing yards only once. The Saints have been unbearably hard to predict, but even with running back Alvin Kamara’s (knee) status unclear, the defense should carry New Orleans, forcing the Eagles to revert to leaning on Jalen Hurts. Pick: Saints +1.5

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: 49ers -7 | Total: 46

Jacksonville (2-7) has played better in recent weeks, but a matchup with the 49ers (4-5) could test the Jaguars’ biggest strength: its rushing defense, which allows a mere 106 yards per game. The 49ers’ offense is predicated on misdirection and playing through contact, a challenge for a defense that’s still finding itself.

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